So now that damn light rail is going to cost $340 million, and it won’t be running until 2011; a year after its original schedule.

This new price tag, of course, sounds really bad considering that the original estimate was $232 million, and people were balking at that.

Mr. Townes, back right, in happier days. (Photo: gohrt.com)

As a result of these “spiraling cost overruns,” several board members of Hampton Roads Transit have asked President and CEO Michael Townes to either “resign or face possible dismissal.” The Pilot article reporting this news was released alongside a related story with the headline, “Support for light rail ‘softening’ in Virginia Beach.”

Now I can see where a lot of this panic is coming from. These board members–Virginia Beach Councilmen John Uhrin and Jim Wood,  Norfolk Councilman W. Randy Wright,  and Chesapeake Councilman Rick West–have a responsibility to their constituents whose pocketbooks will potentially suffer because of these cost overruns. I particularly feel for Randy Wright (though I never thought I’d say that), who has championed light rail when many were critical, and now has to once again defend it after so much headway. I also see where skeptics in Virginia Beach have found fodder to call once again for a public vote on light rail. As John Moss, chairman of the Virginia Beach Taxpayer Alliance, explained, it’s going to be pretty difficult to trust whatever cost they estimate for the expansion now.

But I’ve been an outspoken proponent of light rail, even when its cost rose to $288 million (and I had to bite my lip in worry) and then to $328 million (when I privately questioned if this thing was going to get done). So I want to weigh this whole thing out a bit, at least for my own purposes as a concerned citizen.

First of all, it is going to get done on way or another; in fact, we’re more than halfway there. The federal government has sunk a lot of dough ($174.2 million) to help make it happen, and so has the state ($87 million). So unlike most road construction in Hampton Roads, this project is going to have to get done, and as quickly as possible.

The Tide *will* be completed, somewhere in the distance. (photo: ridethetide.com)

Should we be bitter that this is going to cost 47 percent more than we had first thought? Maybe not. At $340 million, the 7.4-mile starter line will cost about $46 million per mile. According to a UNC Charlotte study (available at http://transpol.uncc.edu//; click on “Projects,” then “Analysis of CATS”), their city’s light rail ended up costing $48 million per mile. And its estimated cost was less than half that, at $21 million per mile. Then there’s Dallas, whose light rail line came to $60 million per mile (after an estimate of $43 million); and Seattle, whose line came to $179 million per mile.

Clearly Seattle’s the big spender here, but what they accomplished–which we failed at–was establishing a proper estimate and keeping to that. From the start, Seattle’s 14-mile line was expected to come in at $2.5 billion, and that it did.

On a personal level, I have to come to Michael Townes’ defense a little bit. What seems to have been his biggest sin was not owning up to the overruns as they were happening. But how many of us can barely bring ourselves to open up our credit card bills, paralyzed by denial about inescapable debts? Considering the recent banking and national economic crises, I’d venture to say quite a lot of us. It’s hard to face the facts, sometimes. Especially when you want to see  something through so badly, as I know Michael did with The Tide. After his knee surgery and some recent personal adversity, I have to say, Michael Townes must feel like the sky is falling.

But someone must be held accountable, and clearly it’s him. When you’re in a position of that kind of authority, no matter who’s ultimately “to blame,” there’s gotta be the guy who’s going to have to be held responsible. And in this town, when you’re dealing with tax dollars and everyone‘s paying the price, that guy is coming down with us.

Of course, all of this is still up in the air. And I don’t want to rush to say that Townes should move over for the good of a potential regional light rail. As Norfolk Councilman Paul Riddick declared, “If I were Michael, I would not resign. If you feel like you’re right and don’t have anything to hide, you just let the chips fall where they may. You don’t cave in when you know you’re right.”

Who knows what will happen next? Seeing him sticks to his guns may do just as much to salvage credibility for light rail as having him resign. One way or another, how these next few weeks will play out in the eyes of Virginia Beach residents is going to be critical.

What I urge them to keep in mind is that one man’s oversight does not change the myriad advantages of a regional light rail: transit-oriented development, a boost in tourism, connectivity, greener cities, the list goes on and on. It’s much too soon to even say it (especially at this tenuous moment), but if we could actually have a line running from the Oceanfront to Town Center to downtown Norfolk, and then to ODU and on to the Norfolk Naval Base…what we could do for patients, by connecting them to hospitals; for students, by connecting at least three colleges; for the military; for local businesses… it’s astounding.

This is one we can’t give up on because of (what we perceive to be) a nickel on the track. It’s time to demand transparency in the system, public knowledge and comment, and progress.

All is definitely not lost.